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The easing cycle is shallower than priced
accelerating Macro since Jul 10, 2026Conviction
3/5
Horizon
12 mo
7-day evidence
3
30-day evidence
6
Total
6
Thesis
Guidance and the long end both say the destination rate is higher than the market's path; duration-sensitive sleeves have started to notice.
Watching for next
A term-premium move that outpaces the policy-rate repricing.
Tickers
SPY,QQQ,IWM,GLD
Themes
rates,fiscal
Evidence trail
6 items| Date | Source | Title / Why it matters | Material | Sent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 |
Signal & Noise
QQQ
|
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: new data point on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
40 | − |
| Oct 07 |
Signal & Noise
GLD
|
SPDR Gold Shares: the latest on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
64 | 0 |
| Oct 05 |
Meridian Wire
SPY
|
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF T: management commentary on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
48 | + |
| Sep 26 |
Northbridge Review
QQQ
|
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: management commentary on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
55 | − |
| Sep 14 |
Meridian Wire
IWM
|
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund: management commentary on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
72 | 0 |
| Sep 10 |
Meridian Wire
QQQ
|
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: the latest on the easing cycle is shallower than priced
Adds to the case that the easing cycle is shallower than priced.
|
61 | 0 |