Narratives
Persistent investment theses with accumulating evidence over time.
Most days the answer is "watching" — that's the point.
Today
3 updated ·
2 at inflection ·
1 new candidates ·
1 spawned
as of 2026-10-08 →
At Inflection
2
action zone
Developing
5
evidence accumulating
Watchlist
2
patient, monitoring
Candidates
4
pre-spawn cluster
At Inflection
— evidence is accelerating; action zone
Power is the binding constraint on compute
inflection
AI
NEE,CEG,VST,ETN,NVDA
Every incremental data-centre campus now starts with a power agreement rather than a chip order; regulated utilities and merchant generators are the gating suppliers.
Watching for: A second large hyperscaler power deal at a premium to the first.
conviction
4/5
9 last 7d
14 last 30d
14 total
sentiment
+0.1
Obesity drugs reshape the consumer basket
inflection
Health
LLY,NVO,PEP,KO,MCD
Prescription volumes are now large enough to show up in packaged-food and quick-service traffic data.
Watching for: A food company guiding to volume declines it attributes to the drugs.
conviction
2/5
3 last 7d
4 last 30d
4 total
sentiment
+0.0
Developing
— evidence accumulating; no action yet
Infrastructure capital crowds into power deals
developing
AI
NEE,CEG,BX
Sovereign and infrastructure funds are bidding for the same generation assets the hyperscalers want; four deals in a fortnight set the marginal price of contracted power.
Watching for: A contracted-power deal at a premium to the last one.
conviction
3/5
4 last 7d
4 last 30d
4 total
sentiment
+0.4
Memory pricing turns the corner
accelerating
AI
MU,TSM,AMAT,LRCX
Contract memory prices have risen for two straight quarters as high-bandwidth parts crowd out commodity capacity.
Watching for: Capacity additions announced that outrun demand.
conviction
3/5
5 last 7d
9 last 30d
9 total
sentiment
+0.3
Consumer credit stress moves up the income ladder
accelerating
Consumer
V,MA,BAC,JPM,TJX,WMT
Delinquency rates that started in sub-prime are now rising in the middle tiers, while scale retailers take share from trade-down.
Watching for: A prime-borrower delinquency uptick in a large card issuer's monthly data.
conviction
3/5
4 last 7d
7 last 30d
7 total
sentiment
+0.1
The easing cycle is shallower than priced
accelerating
Macro
SPY,QQQ,IWM,GLD
Guidance and the long end both say the destination rate is higher than the market's path; duration-sensitive sleeves have started to notice.
Watching for: A term-premium move that outpaces the policy-rate repricing.
conviction
3/5
3 last 7d
6 last 30d
6 total
sentiment
-0.2
Shipping-lane risk is a standing premium in crude
developing
Energy
XOM,CVX,COP,SLB
Insurers, not producers, are setting the marginal price of seaborne crude; the premium has not faded between incidents.
Watching for: A tanker-rate spike without a headline incident.
conviction
2/5
1 last 7d
3 last 30d
3 total
sentiment
+0.7
Watchlist
— mature, decaying, or quietNew Candidates
— clusters awaiting qualification (≥3 articles in 14 days needed to spawn)
Liquid cooling becomes standard in new campuses
VST,ETN
· ai_infra,cooling
4 articles since
Oct 08
Tariff pass-through reaches equipment pricing
TM,DE,CAT
· trade,tariffs
3 articles since
Oct 03
Seat compression in enterprise software
CRM,NOW,ADBE
· software,pricing
5 articles since
Sep 30
Grid copper demand outruns mine supply
FCX,LIN
· metals,grid
2 articles since
Sep 27